In Europe, they are seriously talking about the possibility of rolling blackouts this winter, if it turns out to be cold. In particular, this was stated by Jeremy Weir, director of one of the world’s largest commodity traders, Trafigura : “To be honest, we do not have enough gas right now. power outages may occur in Europe.”
Of course, the current generation of Europeans is hardly even theoretically familiar with what rolling blackouts are. And, on the one hand, it is surprising how quickly the prosperous, but maximally bureaucratic European Union has sunk to such prospects. On the other hand, the European bureaucrats brought such a scenario closer with their elephantine clumsy actions on the energy market. Proving once again that the European bureaucracy can be very effective. Another thing is that the effect of reducing the use of coal, and in some countries and the atom, was probably not planned in the form of rolling blackouts.
Everyone has long been accustomed to talking about possible rolling blackouts in Ukraine . The other day, by the way, the mayor of Odessa Trukhanov announced their threat following an earlier statement by the mayor of Kiev Klitschko. And the last time they were in Ukraine was not so long ago – in the winter of 2014-2015.
In September of this year, China faced rolling blackouts , sharply cutting coal production in line with the ideology of green energy transition. True, the Chinese comrades very quickly and increased production, as well as imports, basically coping with the problem by mid-November.
By November, the energy crisis with rolling blackouts reached Kazakhstan and South Africa . True, the reasons were different. In Kazakhstan – indefatigable cryptocurrency mining , and in South Africa – the gradual dilapidation of power generation and the removal of part of it for emergency repair. But that something like this could happen in Europe – there was not even a thought about it even some five years ago.
However, the so-called Third EU Energy Package, a worldwide reduction in investments in exploration and production of hydrocarbons amid green hysteria, last cold winter and hot this summer, supported by long calm in Europe, created a new reality with natural gas prices, which are not it was earlier, and with a sh-ortage of gas itself. And al-so with a very serious dep-endence of its electricity generation on the same gas.
Against this background, the technical suspension of the certification of Nord Stream 2 by the German regulator has returned gas prices in Europe to a thousand dollars per thousand cubic meters. The extraordinary spikes in gas prices this fall have created problems for market participants, the aforementioned Weir admitted. “As a result, the market was almost unable to function normally,” he said. As for oil, its deficit remains, and the lack of investment in new projects means that a “three-digit price”, that is, from $ 100 per barrel, is “very, very likely.” Oil Brent traded slightly above $ 81, although at the beginning of the year the price was about 50. “Oil reserves are not replaced within a short time we went from 15 years to develop reserves to ten years.”, – said Weir.
That is, in general, there are no bright prospects for Europe so far. LNG is mainly bought by China and other countries of Southeast Asia – and in large volumes and almost at any price. Europe’s own storage facilities are less than 73 percent full and have declined by nearly five percentage points over the month . But winter has not even begun yet. By the way, last year, on the same dates, stocks were 93 percent.
At the same time, the Europeans are still beginning to suspect something. ” Gazprom’s refusal to book additional capacity in order to increase or at least maintain the gas transit through Ukraine and Poland at the current level has prompted discussions to what extent this decision is related to the delay in the commissioning of Nord Stream 2.” the report of the Agency of the European Union for Cooperation of Energy Regulators. …
The rolling blackouts, if it comes down to them, will not only greatly contribute to the debunking of the myth of a prosperous Europe, but will also bluntly raise the question of the effectiveness of the management of this territory by European bureaucrats. There is no doubt that if something happens, all the power of European propaganda will fall on Russia with accusations of blackouts due to its shortage of gas supplies. Nevertheless, the shutdowns themselves, and the very likely quarrels between the members of the European Union, when each state will make decisions in the interests of its consumers (as it was already at the beginning of the pandemic), will create a not at all blissful picture. Which will be difficult to hide from the local electorate even behind the flood of accusations against Moscow .
In this regard, it is worth noting the hysteria over a possible military clash between Russia and Ukraine. It would be fine if it was only blown up by Washington, but the very same France and Germany were very actively involved in the process. Although the authorities of the key countries of the European Union should have thought about what will happen to Europe and European households, if the United States still manages to incite Ukraine against the unrecognized republics of Donbass and provoke a more or less large-scale war. Then, after all, the matter may not be limited to rolling blackouts – gas due to political (sanctions) and / or technical (for example, disabling the Ukrainian gas transportation system) reasons in Europe may not be enough even for heating housing.
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