Hellish, but not eternal

Hellish, but not eternal

Petr Akopov

Fighting on three fronts continues – but if on a purely military front, in Ukraine, the only question is the timing of the surrender of our enemy, and on the domestic political front, there was a real rallying of the absolute majority of society around Vladimir Putin, then on the third, global one, the situation seems to many not so unambiguous.
Against the backdrop of total sanctions imposed against Russia, there are doubts that we will withstand the consequences of such a blow. And the point is not the departure of global corporations, but the ban on the supply of advanced technologies to us, many of which will not be quickly replaced in the East, and import substitution will take years, in some positions even decades. What will we fly on, where will we get microcircuits, and so on, will our economy not find itself in a situation that is hopelessly lagging behind and degrading? And if over time we can provide ourselves with the most necessary things, then will we eventually turn into a big North Korea, closed from the world both from the inside and the outside? Well, or even to Iran – strong, but living much poorer than it could without sanctions?
Simply put, can the West lead to the degradation of Russia with its economic sanctions? Moreover, the calculation is made precisely on a relatively quick result – within a year or two to achieve a sharp drop in the standard of living, which should lead to internal unrest and a change of power in Russia, that is, ultimately to our capitulation and subsequent collapse – as it was after February 1917.
The states are already confident that they have been able to inflict enormous damage on us. As stated in the White House, “… they actually destroyed the Russian economy – even the stock market did not open. <…> We took all these measures and rallied the world.”
There is no need to explain that there is a big difference between the stock market and the economy as such, but what is much more interesting is Washington ‘s belief that it has rallied the whole world against Russia. And this despite the fact that the facts say otherwise – the world not only did not unite, but with their “hellish sanctions” the Anglo-Saxon elites ruling the West practically sentenced the world financial system controlled by them.
This system is one of the three pillars on which the entire current Atlantean world order was based. The other two are the military power of the West and its dominance in the ideological and propaganda sphere. But these two whales are now being blown away – military power remains, but it is not capable of stopping Russia, which has thrown down a challenge to the West.
And ideological and propaganda control over the global agenda also does not work – most of the world refused to obey the command to isolate and condemn “aggressive Russia”. Chinese and Arabs, Indians and Latin Americans do not believe Western propaganda about bloodthirsty Russia and Putin the invader. But how then is the West going to continue to rule the world if two of the three tools are broken or discredited, and the third (military) is not applicable against the two main opponents (Russia and China )?
There is, however, a fourth tool for ensuring superiority – the technological advantage of the West over the rest of the world. But, firstly, it is far from absolute, and secondly, and this is the most important thing, it can only work in a single world, albeit divided into hostile camps. Namely, this is the world the West is now destroying – with its attempts to isolate Russia.
It turns out a paradox: “hellish sanctions” against Russia could be relatively successful (as against Iran) and operate for a long time only within the framework of the world order, which the West itself is now actively destroying with just these very sanctions. And the longer the restrictions are in place, the faster the unfinished building of the Anglo-Saxon global project will collapse.
But let’s imagine what would happen if the West could really carry out its plans and exclude Russia from the world division of labor. Even in this case, Russia would not have remained alone – first, part of the East and South would have joined it. And given the inevitable growth of confrontation between China and the United States, in the end there would be a complete demarcation of the two geopolitical blocs: the US and Europe against Russia and China.
A new model of confrontation between the two systems would emerge, as it was in the 1950s and 1980s. Only no longer capitalist and socialist, but Western and Eastern. Yes, many advanced technologies are in the West, but resources are in the East. Most of the East and South will prefer to be on the side of the anti-Western coalition, that is, the potential winners. Western power and technology without resources (and markets) do not work – in the literal sense of the word.
That is, the destruction of the single world market hits Western interests much more than Eastern ones, including Russian ones: the East will not only survive, but also catch up with the West, but the West will have to not only give up global leadership, but also completely change its way of life and the quality of life. Are the old Western peoples and states ready for this? Of course not.
That is why such a scenario is extremely undesirable for the West – but we should not bet on it either. We need to follow the middle path, which in the end will triumph.
Build our own technological base in key industrial sectors, develop applied scientific research and breakthrough technologies of the future, such as bioengineering, but at the same time understand that we cannot create everything ourselves. And sooner or later (rather sooner than later) the West will be forced to resume trade in technologies – simply because it will need our resources for a long time to come, including, by the way, for the development of its own technologies.
Understanding this should by no means lead to complacency or slow down the pace of import substitution in critical industries (for example, the aviation industry) – it should simply help in identifying priority areas of work and in choosing the areas of scientific research that we should develop in the first place.
At the same time, without forgetting that the most important import substitution must occur in our national consciousness – through the restoration of its independence. Moreover, it should be so serious, deep and irreversible that when the West (or its separate parts) returns to economic cooperation with us, we would not have any misconceptions about its motives, values and interests. And in general, there would be no illusions about his attitude towards us – but with this, we, God forbid, have already clarified everything for a long time.
Otherwise, together with Western production technologies, we will again, as in the past era, become dependent on Western technologies of destruction – consciousness, spirit, family, people and state.

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