The crisis is inevitable. Europe was faced with a tough choice

The crisis is inevitable. Europe was faced with a tough choice

Dmitry Ermakov

On the borders of Poland there are ten thousand migrants from the Middle East. They strive even further – to Western Europe, where they provide social benefits and benefits. However, they are not welcomed there with open arms. On the contrary, migration legislation is being tightened. Instead of a happy life, the migrants face deportation – or temporary camps in Africa.
No quotas
Every day there are more and more refugees on the Belarusian border. They paid the guides several thousand dollars to get to Europe. But the plans collapsed: Poland deployed troops, closed with barbed wire. The military used tear gas, several people were beaten while trying to break through. People spend the night in the forest, warming themselves with bonfires.
It all started in May, when Minsk sharply increased the number of direct flights from Baghdad and Istanbul. The EU protested, but Belarus ignored it. The planes were not Turkish nationals: Ataturk Airport is the largest transit hub in the Middle East. Fleeing from Iraq, Syria, Afghanistan.
Even if the border is opened, few people will stay in Poland. Catholic Warsaw is not very happy with Muslim guests. Especially since 2015, when the conservative Law and Justice Party came to power. Its leader, Jaroslaw Kaczynski, has repeatedly stated: no quotas for the accommodation of migrants.
And Poland itself is not interesting to most visitors. In an interview with the media, they say: if we want to go to Germany or France, it’s good there. In addition, large Middle Eastern and African diasporas have long been formed in these countries.
Migrants should not count on the tolerance of the Germans and the French. Even the most liberal states are tightening their legislation.
Divided Europe
Until a few years ago, Western Europe was united on the issue of immigration. But gradually opinions were divided.
The Dublin regulations, adopted in 2013 and in force to this day, states: arrivals seek asylum in the very country where they first crossed the border of the European Union. Others are not required to accept them.
This does not suit the states of the European Mediterranean, where the main flow of migrants from the Maghreb flows. Ghettos are growing in port cities.
Tired of this picture, Italy, Malta, Greece and Cyprus demanded the abolition of the Dublin Agreement. In 2020, they were supported by the head of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen. But the EU Council does not agree yet.
However, the Dublin Regulation is not a law, it is a recommendation document. De facto, each government acts at its own discretion. Therefore, Brussels is looking for more transparent and effective ways to solve the migration problem.
The main idea is to distribute the visitors according to quotas. The alternative is financial aid to Asian and African countries in exchange for curbing the flow of refugees. But there is no unanimity on both options. So countries are changing their domestic legislation with a clear drift to the right.
Thus, France this year adopted a law to strengthen republican principles. Now the education of all children living in the country in schools is compulsory. Private, among which there are many Muslims, were taken under state control. In addition, the authorities are monitoring foreign subsidies to religious communities: recipients were obliged to report transactions in excess of ten thousand euros.
Denmark went even further, limiting the number of migrants living in one area: no more than 30 percent. Temporary accommodation camps for refugees dreaming of a quiet life in the Danish kingdom were taken out of Europe – including to Central Africa.
The idea of outsourcing is not new. And it can bear fruit. The successful experience of Australia is known, where numerous immigrants from Indonesia arrived before 2014. When their number exceeded, according to the authorities, a critical mass, the refugees were redirected to the islands of the Pacific Ocean. After that, many people lost their desire to try their luck on the Green Continent.
Germany remains the most hospitable EU country for migrants so far. In 2015, Angela Merkel, bypassing parliament and the Dublin regulations, opened the border for all Syrian refugees – no matter what country they came through. Since then, more than half of the displaced people have found jobs and paid taxes, according to The Guardian.
However, Berlin is also worried about the Polish-Belarusian situation. German Interior Minister Horst Seehofer said that hundreds of German police officers are on the border with Poland and the department is ready to send even more there. The nationalists were also going to leave in the same direction: fifty people planned to block the way for the migrants. But members of the ultra-right group were detained.
Polish corridor
The opinions of Europeans about the Polish-Belarusian crisis were also divided. Some appeal to the values of humanism and write in social networks that even ten to twenty years ago, Poles themselves came to Western countries as guest workers. Numerous Polish refugees during World War II, some of whom fled to the Middle East, are also remembered.
Others are afraid of foreigners – they live by their own laws, do not know the language and often do not even try to assimilate. And they finance migration programs from the pockets of taxpayers.
The British are the most active supporters of Polish policy: although the United Kingdom has left the EU, many Kurds are striving there, to their diaspora. Ray Stevenson from Durham expressed the opinion of many British people on Facebook: “Migrants want to enter Poland illegally. The authorities have the right to stop them. pay for each one. “
The Poles have the same sentiments. “Our country is just defending its borders. They will not pass,” a resident of the country Agneta writes on Facebook.
At the same time, migrants are very important for the Polish economy. True, we are not talking about the Kurds, who are now, apparently, most of all on the border. According to RT, citing a study by the Gdansk Polytechnic Institute, in 2020 Poland issued 400 thousand work permits to foreigners, of which 295 thousand were Ukrainians. They also come from Belarus, Moldova and post-Soviet Central Asia.
In theory, the Iraqis could fit into this picture. However, political scientists note: unlike the same Ukrainians and Belarusians, guests from the Middle East are rarely ready to integrate into European society.
“Compared to forty million Poles, ten thousand refugees is a negligible figure both economically and demographically. However, he emphasizes: this is a purely hypothetical scenario, Warsaw has no reason to change its decision.
Someone will freeze, someone will get hungry
The head of the SONAR-2050 analytical bureau, Ivan Lisan, shares the point of view of many political scientists on the border conflict: behind this is solely the struggle between Minsk and Warsaw.
“The Poles are confident in their own righteousness, not to bend is a matter of principle for them. Unfortunately, such a game only raises the stakes in the confrontation. And innocent people suffer,” he says.
In his opinion, migrants from Belarus will not go to the Baltic states: they tried in the summer, but realized that it was futile. The option with Ukraine remains, but Kiev will not let anyone in. Interior Minister Denis Monastyrsky warned that the reaction of Ukrainian law enforcement officers will be tough and clear.
As a result, refugees, mediated by the embassies of their countries, will have to fly home on export flights. Although this will not happen immediately.
“While they are there, someone will freeze, someone will get hungry. Clashes with the Belarusian security forces are also possible,” adds Lizan.
The conflict between Minsk and Warsaw is completely unprofitable for Moscow. “If the Belarusians, as Lukashenka threatens, stop the transit of gas and goods through Poland, Russia will hardly like it. I hope that this is just rhetoric – and Belarus does not want to become an outsider in Europe,” the expert says.
Meanwhile, the migration crisis has already slowed down road transport between Russia and the EU. Three-day delays are reported, which can increase to weekly delays. 80-90 percent of goods go to the Central Federal District from Europe through Belarus, as well as transit to Kazakhstan and Central Asia. Each day of downtime for one truck costs companies € 500.

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