The US and EU countries declare that they will not allow Iran to obtain nuclear weapons. At the same time, Washington claims that “the diplomacy window will never close” for agreements with Tehran on nuclear development. Gazeta.Ru has been trying to figure out what has stopped the Americans and their allies from launching a military strike against Iran in recent years.
Maneuvers around the nuclear deal
On October 30, the leaders of the United States, France, Germany and Great Britain in a joint communique announced after a meeting in Rome that they would not allow Iran to obtain nuclear weapons.
“We, the President of the French Republic, the Chancellor of the Federal Republic of Germany, the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom and the President of the United States, are gathered today in Rome to discuss the risks posed to international security by the intensification of Iran’s nuclear program. We expressed our determination to ensure that Iran can never produce or acquire nuclear weapons, ”the communiqué said.
Earlier, Washington said that they would not resort to force in resolving this issue.
“The window for diplomacy will never close. We are always open to diplomatic agreements with Iran. And we believe that the crisis around Tehran’s nuclear development can be resolved only diplomatically, only through negotiations, ”said US Special Representative for Iran Robert Malley.
At the same time, two years ago, the crisis between the two countries intensified so much that the authoritative publications Defense News and Military Times, citing leading American military experts, seriously admitted a clash between the United States and Tehran.
In the summer of 2019, Iranian authorities annou-nced plans to resume uranium processing in case the signatory countries of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) do not propose to find options for easing sanctions imposed by the US after its unilateral withdrawal from the agreement in 2018.
The JCPOA was signed in 2015 by Iran on the one hand and the United States, France, Britain, Germany, China and Russia on the other. The subject of the political agreement was the agreement to lift the regime of international sanctions against Tehran in exchange for the Iranian authorities’ refusal from the nuclear program.
Against the background of the US withdrawal from the JCPOA, information appeared that Washington had begun preparations for a military operation against Tehran, including sending 120,000 troops to the region. This number is quite comparable to the composition of the army of the invasion of Iraq in 2003. The American military command also decided to send an aircraft carrier strike group and strategic bombers to the Persian Gulf zone.
Iran responded by ordering its military to prepare for strikes against US and allied bases in the Middle East and Central Asia.
In 2020, the assassination of the US commander of the Iranian special forces “Al-Quds” of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Qasem Soleimani in Iraq further intensified the talk about a possible “military scenario.” In particular, the American newspaper The New York Times wrote about the “sharply increased risks of military invasion” in an editorial.
Gaddafi’s fate for Iran
The refusal of the Americans from the military operation may be associated with the military power of Iran and with the risk of large losses for the US army, says Viktor Murakhovsky , editor-in-chief of Arsenal Otechestvo magazine, member of the expert council at the Military-Industrial Commission .
“In principle, the United States could and can resolve the issue with Iran by military means, but, according to their own calculations, the losses in this case will be so high that the American society will not be ready to accept them,” Murakhovsky told Gazeta.Ru. – After all, aviation and high-precision weapons only create conditions for victory in a war, but they do not win in any way. It is clear that a combined amphibious operation is indispensable, and the motivation of the
Iranians is quite high. In addition, there are objects on the territory of Iran that pose a threat to the United States – missiles even in conventional equipment. They are in sheltered shelters, including deep rock formations. It is almost impossible to hit them with conventional weapons, even with the use of concrete-piercing bombs of the largest caliber. “
According to him, Iran has a sufficiently developed and quite modern air defe-nse system, including the Russian Tor anti-aircraft missile system (SAM).
“Iran’s nuclear facilities are also hidden deep underground, additionally fortified. Calculations show that even with the help of a tactical nuclear bomb, their defeat is impossible. Not to mention conventional weapons. The guaranteed defeat is questionable if the warhead of the Trident missile is used. Accordingly, there are no guarantees, ”the expert noted.
In addition, according to Murakhovsky, Iran is capable, with the help of tactical missile systems, as well as with the help of short and medium-range missiles, to strike at US bases in the region, at critical infrastructure facilities of Washington’s allies in Saudi Arabia, Qatar and other countries. This factor cannot be ignored by the US command, Murakhovsky emphasized.
In turn, military expert Vladislav Shurygin believes that Iran’s ability to reach US bases in the region did not really matter.
“By itself, Tehran’s ability to reach the bases means absolutely nothing. During the war with the United States, Iraq also periodically reached US bases with its missiles and even once very sensitively hit one of them, but this did not stop the Americans. Rockets are just an indicator of technological capabilities, the qu-estion in this case is how many of them can be used”, – Shurygin drew attention.
According to him, for the Americans, when deciding to abandon the operation against Iran, it was important to make sure that Tehran did not have nuclear weapons, but they did not have such confidence.
“The US is only afraid of those who have nuclear weapons and enough madness to use them at a critical moment. The example of Colonel [Muammar] Gadd-afi is indicative in this se-nse. As soon as Libya made a compromise, abandoned the development of nuclear weapons in exchange for compensation and the lifting of sanctions, the fate of Gaddafi was sealed. The D-PRK will never be touched by Washington. This was s-een and remembered. Incl-uding in Iran. Therefore, relevant developments could have been carried out there even after the conclusion of the JCPOA. Nobody can say absolutely for sure whether Tehran has nuclear weapons or not. This stopped the Pentagon , ”said Valery Volkov , a military political scientist, associate professor at the RANEPA .
The post “The US is only afraid of those who have nuclear weapons and madness” appeared first on The Frontier Post.