The US is preparing a ‘Crimean scenario’

The US is preparing a ‘Crimean scenario’

Dmitry Kosyrev

To begin with, on the eve of this event, they explained to us that it is not worth calling it a “China-US summit”: this is a virtual meeting – a long video conversation. As a continuation, we were warned that the results of this conversation may not immediately appear, that is, the main agreements, if they app-ear, will be implemented gradually and not soon.
And so the conversation took place yesterday, it was very long – three and a half hours. Both sides predictably informed their home audiences that they were being tough by lecturing each other about the other side’s misbehavior. Joe Biden, as it should be, was tougher, but Xi Jinping added kindness : he said that the world is big enough for both superpowers and one should show respect for each other.
However, it is clear that this lack of summit would not have happened if its participants did not need some completely definite agreements. And those were prepared in earnest – including through the long efforts of the heads of the foreign affairs agencies and not only them. It is known, after all, that any international contacts of this level are carefully rehearsed by large teams of diplomats, and both of their leading actors know the general scenario of the upcoming conversation.
There are suspicions that the current conversation be-tween Joe Biden and Xi Ji-nping, at a superficial gla-nce, will be perceived excl-usively as a conversation a-bout Taiwan. At least, both in Beijing and in Washi-ngton they tried to make the world perceive what was happening in this way.
With Taiwan, we see a painfully familiar plot – Black Sea, Ukrainian, Crimean. At first, the United States has heard rumors of a suspicious concentration of Russian military forces on the Ukrainian borders. Then we see a very real unprecedented concentration of NATO forces in the Black Sea. It is clear that the Black Sea Fleet reacts to this by increasing its activity. Not to mention the escalation of threatening statements from both sides. At the same time, hysterical voices are heard from Kiev, calling for war or frightening by war. Although, in reality, the goal of the United States is not at all to fight, but to create a hotbed of tension. The temperature in it is raised and lowered as needed. Now it has been lowered both in the Black Sea and in the Taiwan Strait.
If “Taipei” is substituted for “Kiev”, it will be exactly the same, although the Taiwanese leaders are much more sane in terms. In any case, it is clear that Beijing does not need to seize Taiwan by force in any way, that the United States only regularly uses sensitivity for the Chinese public and the leadership of the entire plot with “alternative China.” And they are testing the strength of the Beijing assertion that the proclamation of Taiwan’s independence (and the recognition of the island as such by America ) is a “red line” that should not be crossed.
One way or another, the Taiwan problem was thrown aside, Biden admitted that the United States continues to adhere to the principle of “one China”, and the alarmists have once again calmed down.
Even on the eve of the current conversation between Xi and Biden, knowledgeable people on both sides explained to us that the reason for the meeting was not at all Taiwanese affairs. The fact is that Biden needs to combine a hedgehog with a snake: show firmness in order to please one part of the political spectrum, and at the same time end the US-China trade war in order to satisfy his business circles, and what is there – to save the United States from big trouble. That is, in order to make peace, one must first have a strong quarrel: this is America with its corporate style of behavior in the international arena. Taiwan is the same abuse and nothing more.
The American publication Politico describes the situation as follows: it is necessary to resolve issues related to the observance of intellectual property rights, as well as trade in steel, aluminum and solar panels. Well, and start the conversation anew about the missile programs of North Korea, the nuclear programs of Iran and others – what if the United States and China can do something here together. In general, both sides will have to admit that the gap in communication between the two superpowers during the time of Donald Trumpwas a big mistake. And now there is a lot of work to be done for various commissions and subcommissions to correct this mistake. And the results of this work (see above) will not appear immediately, but under-summit can launch or accelerate such mechanisms. And at the same time, outline the general rules for communication between the two powers.
Which is exactly what happened. The two leaders “discussed ways for the parties to continue negotiations on a number of other issues, with President Biden emphasizing the importance of substantive and concrete consultations.”
Basically, this means that America has lost the economic war with China started under Trump. But the latter’s internal situation was strong, but what is happening now with Biden (just go through the headlines of any US publication): falling presidential ratings, empty store shelves, inflation, squabbles within the Democratic Party. Well, as for the position of Xi Jinping, he has no such problems at all. Taiwan, however, can create them – it will be equally dangerous both to react and not to react to all kinds of provocations in the Taiwan Strait. But, actually, it is Biden who needs China, not China Biden.
On the eve of this conversation, there were as many attempts – in the United States, in China – to determine the essence of the situation. Either the rules of competition are being worked out so that it does not turn into a fight. Or is it America’s favorite exercise to compete and cooperate at the same time where America benefits from cooperation?
As for Taiwan, no one expected that the United States would agree once and for all to settle this problem (as well as the problem with Ukraine, in fact).
The maximum was expected – that the parties here too will work out some general rules of behavior that will protect from uncontrolled development of the situation, that is, from unplanned incidents. So the war in the Taiwan Strait is not even postponed – it was not planned.

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