“The war will write off everything”

“The war will write off everything”

Maxim Sokolov

The idea of supplying weapons to Ukraine, and any, except, perhaps, WMD (so far), visibly takes over the minds of European politicians. The conflict has reached the stage when no one remembers the former ban on the supply of weapons, especially lethal ones.
The idea of Lend-Lease 2022 has its own logic. Since NATO countries have clearly expressed their unwillingness (and unwillingness) to participate in hostilities themselves and at the same time express their selfless determination to fight to the last Ukrainian soldier, this implies the need to supply the Ukrainian ally with the means of warfare – and generously. So that the Armed Forces of Ukraine do not know either shell hunger or a shortage of tanks and aircraft. Ukrainians fight without sparing their lives, and NATO acts as an arsenal of democracy. Everything is in business.
This idea was expressed, for example, by Polish Foreign Minister Zbigniew Rau. “The Russian president is demanding unconditional surrender from Kiev, and the international community has only one way to influence this: to arm Ukraine to the teeth.”
To the teeth so to the teeth, but how to do it. Ukrainian ports on the Black Sea are blocked. Land transports with weapons are a legitimate military target on the territory of Ukraine, and how many of them will reach the front line, given the dominance of Russian forces in the air? The same applies to the distillation of aircraft under their own power from Poland. Not all will fly. The supply of ammunition and fuel is the same problem. They burn well.
That is, Pan Rau was smooth on paper, but they forgot about the ravines. And walk on them.
In this sense, the project outlined by Her Majesty’s Prime Minister Boris Johnson is more sophisticated. He announced the readiness of the West to start rearming Ukraine, but not now, as the Polish minister suggests, but after the end of the current campaign: The West will supply so many weapons, send so many instructors, provide such intelligence assistance that it will create a kind of deterrent mechanism to prevent Russia from invading again.”
True, there are too many “ifs” here.
The performance of one British military-industrial complex is clearly insufficient to adequately strengthen the Ukrainian porcupine. The fact that everything is very bad with tanks was known even before February 24th. What about MANPADS is also unimportant, said the Minister of War Wallace himself in a conversation with the imaginary Ukrainian Prime Minister Shmygal (in reality with the pranksters Vovan and Lexus).
Thus, it is necessary that the entire military-industrial complex of the Western world work for the needs of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Are the gunsmiths of France, Germany, Italy, etc. ready for this? — is not fully understood. And not everyone likes the idea of further bogging down in this conflict, and Europe ‘s big economic problems could make it difficult to rebuild its economy on a war footing. So far, the ” European Council expects that the European Commission, in coordination with the European Defense Agencywill prepare by mid-May a gap analysis in investments in the defense industry, as well as prepare proposals, other necessary initiatives to strengthen the European defense industry, “however, the gap analysis and the preparation of initiatives by the Brussels bureaucracy (which will either be executed or not) are all very indefinitely.
Perhaps the European islanders of Johnson and others are arguing in the spirit of “the war will write off everything,” including the exorbitant increase in military spending. But whether all the countries of Europe are filled with such fearlessness (after all, war is always a clash with an unclear outcome) is unknown.
It is also unknown whether Johnson is presenting a common agreed position or acting as a goat provocateur, while others are far from being so decisive.
But even this is not so important, because there is one very strong assumption in the undertaking of the British Prime Minister. He proposes to strengthen the military power of Ukraine after the end of the current hostilities.
Obviously, with reason to believe that in the current situation, all supplied products of the military-industrial complex will become burnt scrap metal, and European instructors will become fertilizer for Ukrainian fields. And this is not exactly what the West needs.
Therefore, we need to wait for a truce and, when Russian missiles stop hitting military targets on the territory of Ukraine, use this time for enhanced rearmament of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. In other words, wait for a stop order, after which the next “Khasavyurt” or “Minsk” will be signed, allowing Kiev, with the help of the West, to intensively prepare for revenge.
Everything is logical, and there are precedents in post-Soviet history, but it is not clear what the confidence is based on that this time too all military achievements will be successfully reset by politicians. In addition to a simple induction – “if Khasavyurt was in 1996, then it will be in 2022” – there are no other grounds here. Moreover, there is a difference between 1996 and 2022, and a considerable one.
Having suffered the inevitable military, as well as diplomatic and economic losses, and then completely abandoning the goals for which these losses were reconciled, and returning to the status quo on February 23 – this is, if not suicide, then close to it. For the status quo is the territory close to Russia, controlled by the Nazis, confident in their impunity, and the territory, furiously arming. And not only conventional weapons, but also WMD.
According to Johnson’s plan, the Kiev government, which is extremely hostile to Russia and Russians, will again gain lack of control, impunity and will have the opportunity for a successful revenge this time – Moscow will look at all this complacently.
It seems to others that Her Majesty’s Prime Minister here is in a state of strong delusion.

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