‘The world will shudder.’ What will happen if Ukraine joins NATO

Andrey Kots

Washington will continue to arm the Ukrainian Armed Forces, said US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin during an official visit to Ukraine. According to the head of the Pentagon, the US leadership fully supports Kiev’s NATO aspirations – and no one has the right to interfere with this. In Moscow, it is considered a red line. What threatens Russia and the world from Ukraine’s entry into the North Atlantic bloc – in the material of RIA Novosti.

Red line

Austin’s visit to Ukraine went off with great fanfare. The state media did not hide their jubilation and asserted that the question of joining NATO was practically resolved now. Nevertheless, the head of the Pentagon did not promise anything concrete to the Ukrainians: only general phrases about support for sovereignty and Euro-Atlantic aspirations, as well as about open doors. However, this was not just a courtesy visit. When Austin’s plane was landing in Kiev, two US Air Force strategic bombers B-1 ma-rched over the Black Sea a-long the Russian Crimea c-oastline. The message is v-ery clear: “We have settled at your borders for a long time.”

Although neither Brussels nor Washington gives Ukraine any guarantees of joining NATO, the Kremlin takes this prospect very seriously. Dmitry Peskov, spokesman for the Russian president, indicated that this would grossly violate the red lines of Russia’s national interests. Moscow will have to take “the most active measures to ensure its own security.”

The Ukraine responded immediately. Foreign Mi-nister Dmitry Kuleba arrogantly stated that Kiev does not care about Moscow’s o-pinion on this topic. Ru-ssian Senator Alexei Pus-hkov retorted: this issue, on the contrary, worries the E-uropean allies of the United States in NATO, who are not at all eager to fight a nuclear power for a new member of the alliance, which brings nothing but problems to the West.

Fortunately, there are few people on the continent willing to send their soldiers to die for unknown reasons. Experts admit that Ukraine is unlikely to be admitted to the North Atlantic bloc in the near future. As the first deputy head of the international c-ommittee of the Federation Council Vladimir Dzhaba-rov told RIA Novosti, Lloyd Austin hoped only to reassure the Kiev authorities, who demand membership in the alliance in an already hysterical tone.

Be that as it may, it is likely that Ukraine, albeit not soon, will nevertheless end up in NATO. The Americans have spent too much on the modernization of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, and they never invest money without a chance of profit.

Donbass issue

“Ukraine is really for Russia that red line, over which NATO should not be allowed in any case,” Konstantin Sivkov, Doctor of Military Sciences, said in an interview with RIA Novosti.

“The reason is simple: the Ukrainian people are ethnically identical to the Russians. will create the preconditions for a full-fledged civil war. This would be extremely beneficial for the United States. The Pentagon is already forming troops of the first echelon from the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which, in the event of a conflict between Russia and the North Atlantic Alliance, will go in the vanguard and die first. As they say, Washington is ready to fight with Moscow until the last Ukrainian “.

The expert is convinced that after Ukraine joins NATO, western reconnaissance equipment will immediately appear on its eastern borders, capable of monitoring the air and ground situation up to the Urals. And after that, the Americans will deploy elements of a missile defense system here, medium and shorter-range missiles with a minimum flight time to the largest Russian cities.

“Do not forget about the problem of Donbass,” Siv-kov added. “After Ukraine joins NATO, the soldiers of Western countries may already be at war with the unrecognized republics. Then either the DPR and LPR will be completely defeated, or Russia will stand up for them, which will lead to open confrontation with the West. “

In this case, the expert b-elieves that an adequate m-easure of the Kremlin wo-uld be the recognition of t-he independence of the r-ebellious republics and th-eir inclusion in Russia, w-hich is very much feared in the West. In addition, the western borders will have to be strengthened even more. “In any case, Ukraine in NATO is a serious threat to us, which is absolutely unacceptable to ignore,” Sivkov stressed.

There are no rules

Today, the main obstacle to Ukraine’s entry into the alliance is the war in Donbass. According to the organization’s charter, states with unresolved territorial, ethnic or political conflicts are not admitted there. In Brussels, there are far from fools who are ready to get involved in other people’s wars at a signal from overseas. They understand that at least some formalities must be observed. On the other hand, this did not prevent the alliance countries from recognizing the independence of Kosovo, bypassing international law. As well as invading Iraq without the permission of the UN Security Council.

“We are making concessions, but the West does not do us such favors,” says Sergei Sudakov, a professor at the Academy of Military Sciences. “NATO continues to blackmail. Their last step is to expel our diplomats from all structures that are responsible for Russia’s interaction with the alliance. During the Cold War, the principles of building relationships are already outdated. Today, only the right of the strong is valid. And of course, Ukraine really wants to join this world of the strong. “

According to the political scientist, Russia needs to at least formulate a concept of national security that clearly delineates what is a threat to the country and what is not. What can be considered a casus belli, and what does not require special attention. The direct reason for war after Ukraine’s admission to NATO, he believes, may be the deployment of US land-based Tomahawk missiles on Russia’s borders.

“Until the last moment, we will not know what kind of warhead they are equipped with,” explains Sudakov. “It can be a standard, high-explosive fragmentation. Or maybe a nuclear one. and the most advanced air defense system in the world. “Obviously, the seriousness of the situation is also realized at Znamenka 19: the troops of the Western Military District regularly conduct exercises and command-staff maneuvers, the main legend of which is protection from an attack from the west.

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