Events in Kazakhstan have every chance to present a number of surprises for Ukraine as well. The most obvious of them and lying practically on the surface is the deepening energy crisis in the country. Some local pseudo-experts very quickly found the “hand of Moscow ” in what is happening in Kazakhstan. And the troubles expected by Ukraine as a result of these events serve as a lethal argument for a significant part of Ukrainian inhabitants, confirming this exotic version. Indeed, through the efforts of propaganda, an absolutely Ukrainian-centric universe has been formed in their heads.
The Ukrainian authorities decided not to react at all to the Kazakh pogroms. There were no official comments for the first days. And only on January 5, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine gave out a message on this topic, but even it did not concern the actual events that were taking place – these were recommendations to the citizens of Ukraine staying in Kazakhstan.
You can understand the Ukrainian authorities. Alth-ough they love to shoot th-emselves in the foot, in this case, the statements in support of what is happening could become very painful. First, because Ukraine is to a certain extent dependent on energy supplies from Kazakhstan. And Kazakhstan is not Belarus, which, even after all the nasty things Kiev has done, continues to deliver. They may be offended there. Secondly, the situation in Ukraine itself is now quite explosive. Even in spite of the total cleansing of the real opposition and tough political repression, it is not even an hour, it can explode by itself due to the disappearance of electricity, gas or, for example, bread and other socially significant food products. Speak out against “popular protests” in a country that is a member of the EurAsEC and the CSTOUkrainian authorities cannot, by definition, be the participants and organizers of the protests even cannibals.
But unofficially, there were some statements. For example, the head of the Verkhovna Rada Committee on Financial, Tax and Customs Policy Daniil Getmantsev wrote on social networks : “It seems that in terms of average wages and GDP per capita, we have a chance to catch up and overtake Kazakhstan much earlier than expected.” Clearly hinting at the sad consequences for Kazakhstan of the events taking place. Which is very specific for a representative of a party that demonstratively supports similar events in his country. However, it is no more specific than the support of Nikol Pashinyan, who came to power in Armenia as a result of the color revolution, the introduction of CSTO troops into Kazakhstan.
The “stubborn” part of the Ukrainian public, including the “Soros” and other “grant-eaters”, of course, supported the excesses in every possible way. There is every reason to believe that the Ukrainian subdivisions of information and psychological operations also took an unspoken part in shaking the situation in Kazakhstan. And Mukhtar Ablyazov, claiming the vacant position of the leader of the protests, not only appeared with his comments on several Ukrainian channels, including those of Rinat Akhmetov, but is also trying to coordinate the rioters from Kiev.
However, in parallel, comments began to appear related to the economic consequences of what is happening for Ukraine.
In particular, information appeared in the Ukrainian media that the contracted coal is not supplied to the country from Kazakhstan (according to the agreement, 660 thousand tons should be supplied within a month). There were suggestions that this is due to the events taking place. However, the Ukrainian Ministry of Energy immediately disavowed these versions, announcing the blocking of transit by Russia. Meanwhile, Russian Railwayssuch allegations have already been repeatedly denied, speaking only of some problems with the rolling stock. Which, by the way, is confirmed by the availability of coal supplies from Kazakhstan to Ukraine in November (167.4 thousand tons) and December (184.2 thousand tons) last year. So the version with the complete cessation of supplies due to the events taking place looks much more realistic. Moreover, it is already known that the rebellious public is blocking the railway traffic in the republic itself.
But if coal supplies from Kazakhstan make up about ten percent of imports and no more than four percent of consumption in Ukraine, then supplies of liquefied gas from there at the end of last year provided as much as a third of the Ukrainian market. Yes, the same liquefied gas, the rise in prices for which to 120 tenge (7.5 hryvnia, or 21 rubles) and provoked a riot in Kazakhstan.
By the way, in Ukraine this fuel costs almost 20 hryvnias (55 rubles), and local “not slaves” are calm about this. Despite the lower average salary than in Kazakhstan, as indicated above.
And yet, in Ukraine, they fear the disappearance of a resource that provides a third of local needs for liquefied gas. The frog needs to be cooked slowly – a spike in prices can break patterns even in well-brainwashed heads. It will be very difficult to replace the loss of such volume. For the most part, Ukraine has successfully destroyed its production facilities in recent years. Russia has limited the supply of liquefied gas since October 2021.
In addition, the Ukrainian authorities, trying to annoy the “aggressor”, introduced and recently extended a special duty of three percent on Russian liquefied gas back in 2020. Another alternative could be fuel of Belarusian origin. After all, Minsk provides about 40 percent of the needs of the local markets for gasoline, diesel fuel and fuel oil and is a fairly significant player in the liquefied gas market. But no – the Belarusians supply the maximum possible and cannot physically increase supplies.
It turns out that the riots in Kazakhstan have serious chances to lead to an increase in the price of liquefied gas on the Ukrainian market to 23-25 hryvnia (63-69 rubles). However, it is hardly worth expecting a riot on this basis. Because it used to be possible to ride on the Maidan, demanding a reduction in tariffs for “communal” and other prices. Now the new authorities, under the strict guidance of Western partners, completely discourage the desire to “jump” – by opening secret prisons, using the state repressive apparatus to the fullest against dissidents and even shooting them off by paramilitary formations, modern “death squads”.