Ukraine will be allowed into the EU… along the Turkish path

Ukraine will be allowed into the EU… along the Turkish path

Denis Dubrovin
Ukraine has applied for admission to the EU. The President of the country Volodymyr Zelensky asks to accept his state into the European Union under the non-existent “accelerated procedure”.
The situation itself is completely surreal. In the context of an active military conflict, the president of the country is primarily concerned not with defense issues, not with the humanitarian situation, and not with the rescue of civilians who are blockaded in the cities by their own army; but an attempt to achieve acceptance into an international organization.
This move is yet another element of the fake imitation politics that has long been prevalent in Ukraine and is increasingly spreading in Western countries. Symbol Policies. Pursuing a promise to accept his country into the EU, Zelensky is trying to motivate the army and civilians. This is an offer of a mirage of a beautiful future. But he disappears, one has only to approach him closer.
No procedures
You need to understand that the European Union is an extremely bureaucratic organization and there is no accelerated procedure for admitting a country to its membership in principle. As Russia’s Permanent Representative to the EU Vladimir Chizhov clarified to me, after the recent waves of EU enlargement, on the contrary, the procedure for integrating new states has become even more complex and time-consuming than it was before.
Answering a question about the potential of Ukraine in the event that the EU countries nevertheless agree to initiate the process of its admission, he noted: “It would probably be premature to give any specific forecast on the timing, because Ukraine has n-ot even come close to the stage of pre-accession negotiations yet. “.
Stages of a long journey
According to the basic documents of the European Union, the procedure for joining the community consists of three stages.
At the first stage, the country must submit a formal application for EU membership, which is evaluated by the European Commission. In case of a positive conclusion, the leaders of all EU countries must unanimously approve at the summit granting the state the status of a candidate country.
At the second stage, negotiations on accession to the EU begin. They identify the most problematic areas in all areas of the country’s life, on the basis of which the so-called chapters of the negotiation process are formulated – usually there are from 10 to 30. For each chapter, the country must bring its legislation as close as possible to EU standards.
At the third stage, the European Commission evaluates the results of the fulfillment of all conditions determined during the negotiations. If the requirements are met, an EU summit is convened, at which all member countries must unanimously support the entry of the state into its ranks.
Historical precedents
Each stage of this procedure lasts about several years, but there have been exceptions. The fastest accession negotiations were completed by Finland – in just two years (from 1993 to 1995).
However, in the situation with Ukraine, in my opinion, the example of Turkey is much more indicative. This country officially received the status of a candidate for EU accession in 1995 – at the peak of euphoria from the successes and prospects of the European integration project. However, the next stage – the launch of accession negotiations – was slowed down by Greece, a member of the EU. Meetings on this issue between representatives of Turkey and the European Union started only ten years later – in the autumn of 2005 – and have not been completed to this day. The parties managed to agree on 35 directions (chapters) by today, according to which Ankara had to change its legislation to the European one.
The last attempt to revive them was practically kicked out of the EU in 2016 by the Turks as part of a deal to cut off the flow of refugees from Africa during an acute migration crisis. Then Turkey closed the borders in exchange for €6 billion, the promise of a visa-free regime and the acceleration of negotiations on joining the union. However, in the same year, the EU refused the last point, justifying this with human rights violations and too stringent anti-terrorist legislation in Turkey.
Now neither Ankara nor the EU has any illusions about the possibility of admitting this country to the union in any foreseeable future.
Prospects for Ukraine
It seems to me that Ukraine is destined for the same fate. The EU countries, I think, can be persuaded on the wave of media hysteria to give Kiev the status of a candidate country. But they will do this only with a clear understanding that they will be able to postpone the process of launching accession negotiations indefinitely.
The EU has a so-called Cohesion policy, which has nothing to do with Eurosolidarity. This policy implies that all EU countries should strive to equalize the level of economic development and life in all their regions. It is carried out extremely simply – at the expense of subsidies from the EU budget, which is formed from the contributions of member countries. In other words, the rich pay for the poor.
The effect of this policy is rather modest. Thus, 15 years after Romania and Bulgaria joined the EU in 2007, the standard of living in these countries remains several times lower than in Western Europe.
Everyone is well aware that the admission of Ukraine (one of the poorest countries in Europe) to the EU will mean that the funds that have already been allocated by the EU since 2014 (€ 17 billion) will seem like a drop in the ocean. The picture is completed by the outrageous level of corruption in Ukraine, which is recognized by European officials. That is, the taxpayers of the EU countries will not only have to support Kyiv, but do it with the understanding that most of the European funding ends up in the pockets of the local administration.
There is also a political aspect here. The leadership of Kyiv is practically under the direct control of the United States and Great Britain. In case of joining the EU, Ukraine will rece-ive an equal voice in all institutions of the union, including the right to veto in a number of areas of its policy. Accordingly, its acc-eptance will further stren-gthen the influence of the United States on the decisions of Brussels and redu-ce the remnants of the sovereignty of the EU countries.
Fly in the ointment from “friends”
Other contenders for European candidates, Moldova and Georgia, are also spoiling the “raspberries” for Kiev, which, having heard about a certain “accelerated procedure”, immediately rushed to submit their applications for joining the EU. Which made the situation even more difficult.
According to formal features, both of these countries, although far from the EU criteria, are immeasurably closer to them than Ukraine. Europeans now have to decide which exceptions to their own rules to make. After all, Georgia and Moldova may be followed by others, such as Kosovo, which suffered, they say, “from the Serbian occupation.”
What to expect in Kiev
If someone doubts that Kyiv can only claim the status of a candidate for joining the union, but not membership in it, then it is worth listening to what the Europeans themselves say.
The main supporters of imitation of the process of Ukraine’s accession to the EU are the institutions of the European Union – the European Parliament and the European Commission. The European Parliament supported Kyiv’s application with its resolution (which is purely advisory in nature), noting that the community “will work to achieve” Ukraine’s accessi-on to the EU. However, de-spite the extremely favorable tone for the southeastern (in relation to Europe) country, no deadlines are indicated in this document.
The head of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, also supported Kyiv’s aspirations, but noted that the necessary deep transformation processes could not be carried out in a few months. Later, she stressed that it is necessary to “end the war” first, and then go “a long way.” The head of EU diplomacy, Josep Borrell, noted that “on the current agenda” there is no admission of Ukraine to the community.
The Ukrainian ambitions were supported by Bulgaria, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Slovakia, Slovenia, the Czech Republic and Estonia, which, by the way, are united by the fact that they are not donors, but recipients of money from the EU budget. In addition, it is worth remembering that their accession to the EU in 2004 was actively lobbied by the United States, which continues to influence EU policy through them.
In turn, German Foreign Minister Annalena Burbock said that Ukraine is already “part of the European home,” but the process of joining the EU cannot take place in a few months. Prime Minister of the Netherlands Mark Rutte stressed that “the question of full membership is not on the table today.”
New eurocarrot
Of course, and Zelensky understands all this. In any case, his Western partners repeatedly explained this to him. That is, in fact, the current president of Ukraine deliberately deceives his citizens. In my opinion, he is doing exactly what the leaders of the “Maidan” did in 2014: pumping Ukrainians with slogans that an association agreement with the EU is almost joining the community; “European salaries and pensions”, and not the opening of the Ukrainian market for European manufacturers, which will lead to the bankruptcy of local production. This is still the same “Maidan” demagogy, the purpose of which is to “hang” a new carrot in front of the nose of Ukrainian society.
The task is to demonstrate that Ukraine has a certain prospect: they will take everyone to beautiful Europe, pay their debts and give everyone a European salary and pension. This should also become an additional motivation for the Ukrainian army to encourage it to continue fighting against the Russian military against the LPR and DPR.
At the same time, no one wonders how Ukrainians will feel in the EU if by some miracle they still get there in ten years? What will the European community look like by now? What will it look like in the context of the transition to expensive “green” energy, the introduction of environmental standards in the economy, which guarantee a drop in the standard of living of people, the continued cleansing of the media space, and even as part of the elites who are ready to sacrifice the interests of European countries in favor of the United States?

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