Even in the situation of the most acute conflict with the West and the strict subordination of the EU to the Atlantic line, France is interesting and important for us, because now it re-mains the only major W-estern country that is trying to play at least some of its own game and at least partially protect its own national interests. Of cou-rse, there is also Germ-any, but now it seems to have frozen in a daze fr-om what is happening, h-aving decided to tempor-arily completely submit to the Anglo-Saxon will.
In addition, the German political class as a whole is much more homogeneous, and in France everything is much more complicated. Of course, French relative independence now does not have a serious impact on the course of our cold war with the West, but we have a long conflict, so we need to look at the future, how things will be in years to come. Including who will be in power in France.
The paradox of the upcoming French presidential elections on Sunday is that two-thirds of voters w-ant a change of head of state, but Emmanuel Macr-on will be re-elected for a second term. Not in the first round, but in two weeks – in the second. Why are the French so inconsistent?
The problem is not the strength of Macron, but the division of those who are an alternative not even to him, but to the ruling elite. The counter-elite (which includes part of the old aristocracy, Catholics and even some leftists) is extremely popular in France, but it has not yet been able to break through the election management system well built by the elite. At the same time, with each election, the attack of the counter-elites becomes more and more successful.
After all, the current elections are already the seventh, in the ballots of which there is the name Le Pen. In 1988, she appeared for the first time: then it was Jean-Marie, who immediately gained almost 15 percent of the vote. Since then, only once (in 2007) Le Pen received a smaller number, and once, in 2002, he even managed to reach the second round against the inc-umbent President Chirac. But then Le Pen was able to increase his result by less than a percentage: both he and his National Front were so strongly demonized. Radicals, nationalists, almost fascists – the entire French press and elite united against Le Pen, and voters were afraid to vote for such a “terrible man.”
But already in 2012, instead of her father, her daughter went to the polls: debuting with 18 percent, Marine Le Pen scored 21 in the next, in 2017, and ad-vanced to the second round. And although in the first one she lost only 2.5 perce-nt to Macron’s Kinder Surp-rise, in the second the gap was twofold – 33 against 66. And five years have passed – and what do we see now?
The gap between Pen an-d Macron this time has in-creased to 5-6 percent, but this is in the first round. But in the second, which will take place on April 24, everything is already very different from 2017: at the moment, the alignment is 48 to 52. That is, Macron will win again, but with a completely different result and advantage. And this means that Marin has only one step left to take to the Elysee Palace – not now, but in five years, in the next election (yes, this will be her fourth election, but Mitterrand also went to the presidency for fifteen years). Why did such changes occur in the mood of the French? There are three main reasons for this.
Firstly, the very situation in the country and the world is changing, and if earlier Le Pen, who called for limiting migration and criticizing the European Union, could still be denigrated for “extremism” and “xenophobia”, now at least half of the French agree with her (and on many counts and the majority).
Secondly, Le Pen herself has changed, she has noticeably drifted towards the center, having included in her economic program a number of paternalistic, leftist principles.
Thirdly, Eric Zemmour, a popular journalist who created the Reconquista party and took the radical right flank (including on issues of national identity, for leaving the EU and NATO, against globalization and migration), appeared in these elections. The entire election agenda has become radicalized, and against its background, Marine Le Pen looks almost like a centrist, which also facilitates the flow of votes to her.
So, although it initially seemed that the appearance of Zemmour was unprofitable for Le Pen and her “National Rally” – why does she need a competitor on the right flank? – and even aroused suspicion about whether this was the machinations of the Elysee Palace, in the end, the frantic Eric played into the hands of Marin, providing her with a touch of respectability in the eyes of the hesitant voters in the second round. On Sunday, Zemmour will receive about ten percent, and whether he calls on his supporters to vote for Le Pen (and most likely he will), the vast majority of them, of course, will cast their votes for her on April 24.
The Russian factor had a great influence on these elections, because three of the four leading candidates now (apart from Le Pen and Zemmour, and also the leftist Jean-Luc Mélenchon with “Unbowed France”, gaining more than 15 percent) were initially treated by the pro-Atlantic press as “pro-Putin candidates” “. After the start of our special operation in Ukraine, they all had to condemn Putin and Russia to one degree or another, but this does not mean that their approach to relations with our country has fundamentally chang-ed. None of them wants the isolation of Russia, because that would be the isolation of Europe from us. And the complete subordination of France to the Anglo-Sax-ons, and this is exactly what Mélenchon, Zemmour, and Le Pen oppose.
For now, France will remain under the control of the PR project of the pro-Atlantic elites called Macron, but time is now speeding up and Europe is entering a period of serious internal and external trials. France will be able to get out of them while preserving itself only if it defends its independence, and here it cannot do without restoring relations with Russia and changing national elites.